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Insitute of Mathematical Science

Seminar: From Hardwood to Heatmap: A Bayesian Dive into the Spatial Dynamics of Basketball Shot Selection

Seminar| Institute of Mathematical Sciences

Time: Monday, October 20th, 2025,10:30-11:30

LocationRS408, IMS

Speaker: Guanyu Hu, Michigan State Univerisity


Abstract: Basketball shot charts offer rich spatial and contextual information that reveal nuanced patterns in player behavior and game strategy. In this talk, we present a novel Bayesian framework for modeling and interpreting the spatial dynamics of shot selection. We begin with a log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) model to jointly analyze the locations and outcomes (made/missed) of shots across multiple games, capturing spatially varying covariate effects through hierarchical Gaussian processes. To facilitate efficient inference, we design a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using a kernel convolution approach.



Dr. Hu is an associate professor at the Michigan State Univerisity. Dr. Hu’s research mainly focuses on Bayesian nonparametric methods, spatial and spatio-temporal statistics, point process, and causal inference. Dr. Hu has also worked on the analysis of clinical trials, spatial transcriptomic, regional economics, environmental science, educational measurements, and sports data. Now, Dr. Hu is the associate editor of Biometrics, Annals of Applied Statistics♡,Environmental and Ecological Statistics and Statistics and its interface and he also serves as the Chair of ASA statistics in sports section and the Program Chair of ISBA East Asia Chapter. Dr. Hu is elected member of ISI.


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